現(xiàn)狀和趨勢(shì)鏟運(yùn)機(jī)械行業(yè)發(fā)展與柳工的策略智能化

Development of Earth-moving Machinery Industry
and Strategies of Liugong
廣西柳工機(jī)械股份有限公司　　曾光安/ Zeng Guang'an


1 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì)
1990??2003年,GDP從1.9萬(wàn)億元發(fā)展到11.7萬(wàn)億元,年平均增長(zhǎng)率為9.3%;全社會(huì)固定資產(chǎn)投資從4517億元發(fā)展到5.5萬(wàn)億元,年平均增長(zhǎng)率為19.4%,占GDP的平均比重為35.2%;基本投資從1703.8億元發(fā)展到2.3萬(wàn)億元,年平均增長(zhǎng)率為21.4%,占GDP的平均比重為13.2%,占全社會(huì)固定資產(chǎn)投資的平均比重為39.3%。
在正常情況下,我們預(yù)期GDP至少有二十年可以實(shí)現(xiàn)7%或略高一點(diǎn)的較快增長(zhǎng),主要依據(jù)有:
(1)和發(fā)展目標(biāo)的保障。
報(bào)告提出“必須把發(fā)展作為執(zhí)政興國(guó)的第一要?jiǎng)?wù)”,“????我們要在本世紀(jì)頭二十年,集中力量,全面惠及十幾億人口的更高水平的小康社會(huì)????”這就保障了經(jīng)濟(jì)成為執(zhí)政和全力以赴的第一要?jiǎng)?wù),而且必須確保經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)快速發(fā)展,才能實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)。
(2)經(jīng)濟(jì)仍處在市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的初級(jí)階段。
這個(gè)階段的經(jīng)濟(jì)有兩大特點(diǎn):持續(xù)高速度和低中水平。1991??2003年,、美國(guó)和日本的平均增長(zhǎng)率分別為9.7%、3.0%和1.8%。GDP持續(xù)高速增長(zhǎng),這不僅是由于的低起點(diǎn),更由于制度和市場(chǎng)的潛力大,還由于經(jīng)濟(jì)正處在長(zhǎng)周期波動(dòng)的波峰,因此增長(zhǎng)前景廣闊。同時(shí),與發(fā)達(dá)高水平相比,人口基數(shù)巨大,自然資源相對(duì)匱乏,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展起步落后,經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模和質(zhì)量還有相當(dāng)巨大的差距,人均國(guó)民收入剛剛走出低收入門(mén)檻,擁有巨大的發(fā)展空間和市場(chǎng)能力。
(3)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的推動(dòng)力。
經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展已經(jīng)成為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的重要助推器。世界銀行公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,1980??2000年期間,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)按購(gòu)買(mǎi)力評(píng)價(jià)(PPP)計(jì)算的世界GDP增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)率為14%,僅次于美國(guó)(20.7%),排名第二,而位列第三的日本,其貢獻(xiàn)率只有的一半,僅為7%,。當(dāng)前世界經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)仍然低迷,美國(guó)、歐洲、日本等世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的“火車(chē)頭”復(fù)蘇乏力。在此情形下,經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)穩(wěn)定快速發(fā)展對(duì)于世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)尤為重要。
(4)擴(kuò)大出口需求潛力較大。
從國(guó)際環(huán)境變化的趨勢(shì)看,我國(guó)未來(lái)擴(kuò)大出口需求還有較大空間。2001??2003年我國(guó)出口總額增長(zhǎng)率呈逐年上升態(tài)勢(shì)。據(jù)預(yù)測(cè),“十五”凈出口增長(zhǎng)將在3??5%，具有自我感知、自主決策、自動(dòng)控制的功能。智能化工程機(jī)械是智能機(jī)器人的一類(lèi)。目前，出口對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的拉動(dòng)作用相對(duì)于“九五”時(shí)期要大;2006??2015年的出口將增長(zhǎng)5%左右,凈出口增長(zhǎng)保持持平。
(5)外商直接投資的前景廣闊。
加入WTO后,外商直接投資和其他投資繼續(xù)增加。如果外商直接投資占社會(huì)總投資的份額提高五個(gè)百分點(diǎn)左右,對(duì)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的貢獻(xiàn)提高0.3??0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)左右。
(6)經(jīng)濟(jì)步入良性循環(huán)。
發(fā)揮投資和消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的雙拉動(dòng)作用,是今后一段時(shí)期我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)工作的重要方針,也是我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)能持續(xù)快速增長(zhǎng)的重要因素。近年消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的拉動(dòng)作用主要體現(xiàn)在四個(gè)方面:汽車(chē)消費(fèi)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)、住宅需求持續(xù)攀升、旅游業(yè)成為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的亮點(diǎn)、電訊消費(fèi)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。這幾項(xiàng)消費(fèi)的特點(diǎn)一是高價(jià)位,而是呈持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭,對(duì)GDP的貢獻(xiàn)度很大。反過(guò)來(lái),這些消費(fèi)的增長(zhǎng),又拉動(dòng)了交通、建材、市政和城市公用設(shè)施的快速發(fā)展,從而使經(jīng)濟(jì)步入良性循環(huán)。

2 目前的宏觀調(diào)控有利于行業(yè)持續(xù)發(fā)展
自去年以來(lái)展開(kāi)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)控措施始見(jiàn)成效,固定資產(chǎn)投資增長(zhǎng)率逐月回落,而社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額卻逐月上升,從而讓人們現(xiàn)在有理由預(yù)期:經(jīng)濟(jì)可望成功地“軟著陸”。調(diào)整后的固定資產(chǎn)投資增長(zhǎng)速度將會(huì)減緩,占GDP的比重將會(huì)下降到一個(gè)合理的水平,但固定資產(chǎn)投資的總量仍然會(huì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),同時(shí)投資結(jié)構(gòu)會(huì)發(fā)生變化。
可以預(yù)見(jiàn),今后,全社會(huì)將以提高生產(chǎn)效率作為主要目標(biāo)。同時(shí),宏觀調(diào)控給了我們一些教訓(xùn):經(jīng)濟(jì)的周期性決定了我們必須學(xué)會(huì)預(yù)測(cè)、適應(yīng)和控制,從而調(diào)整行業(yè)的需求量、增長(zhǎng)率和產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)。

3 鏟土運(yùn)輸機(jī)械行業(yè)發(fā)展的趨勢(shì)
在過(guò)去十年里,鏟土運(yùn)輸機(jī)械行業(yè)發(fā)展迅猛,裝載機(jī)的市場(chǎng)需求總量由10000多臺(tái)增長(zhǎng)到接近100000萬(wàn)臺(tái),挖掘機(jī)需求由小到大,成為行業(yè)發(fā)展最快的子行業(yè),行業(yè)涌現(xiàn)出一批優(yōu)秀的民營(yíng)企業(yè),外資企業(yè)也大舉進(jìn)軍,各公司銷(xiāo)售網(wǎng)絡(luò)得到迅速發(fā)展,代理商的成長(zhǎng)迅速,零件供應(yīng)商逐步轉(zhuǎn)向民營(yíng)和國(guó)際化,用戶(hù)群體由國(guó)有大用戶(hù)轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)樗饺似髽I(yè)和個(gè)體。
同時(shí),在激烈的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)下,各產(chǎn)品價(jià)格不增反降,裝載機(jī)的產(chǎn)品價(jià)格下降30%以上,而產(chǎn)品技術(shù)水平、質(zhì)量和可靠性卻沒(méi)有明顯提高。鏟土運(yùn)輸機(jī)械行業(yè)逐步暴露很多亟待解決的問(wèn)題:
(1)高庫(kù)存量、高應(yīng)收賬款、現(xiàn)金流短缺、高產(chǎn)能;
(2)高成本、低利潤(rùn);
(3)低產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量、新技術(shù)發(fā)展速度慢;
(4)巨大的低水平重復(fù)生產(chǎn)能力如何消化。
我們預(yù)測(cè),鏟土運(yùn)輸機(jī)械行業(yè)將呈現(xiàn)以下發(fā)展趨勢(shì):
(1)未來(lái)的需求仍將保持一個(gè)較高的水平;
(2)行業(yè)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)將進(jìn)一步加劇:價(jià)格戰(zhàn)和分期付款將是短期的主流手段,產(chǎn)品更新和服務(wù)增值將是長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展的主要策略;
(3)行業(yè)的制造商將會(huì)出現(xiàn)聯(lián)合、重組、倒閉和退出,第一個(gè)整合時(shí)代即將來(lái)臨;工程機(jī)械行業(yè)將會(huì)在整合中趨于理性發(fā)展;
(4)用戶(hù)對(duì)產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量、可靠性、技術(shù)水平、服務(wù)和配件的要求將會(huì)繼續(xù)提高;用戶(hù)的談價(jià)能力將會(huì)繼續(xù)增強(qiáng),用戶(hù)群體會(huì)發(fā)生變化。
(5)對(duì)新產(chǎn)品和新品種的需求將會(huì)逐步增加,區(qū)域需求將發(fā)生變化;
(6)新的業(yè)務(wù)模式:租賃銷(xiāo)售、二手機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)、客戶(hù)和代理商的融資手段創(chuàng)新;代理商將不斷規(guī)范化,并出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重分化;
(7)國(guó)外公司在的發(fā)展速度和數(shù)量將會(huì)出現(xiàn)分化。

4 柳工的策略和措施
(1)產(chǎn)品技術(shù)進(jìn)步和質(zhì)量是我們的關(guān)注焦點(diǎn);
(2)服務(wù)和配件――第一件要事;
(3)品牌――獲得持續(xù)高利潤(rùn)的重要途徑;
(4)新產(chǎn)品――機(jī)遇和新的增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn),找到下一增長(zhǎng)周期的主流產(chǎn)品;
(5)國(guó)際市場(chǎng)的開(kāi)拓。
我們堅(jiān)信:創(chuàng)新才是發(fā)展的靈魂!站得高,才能看得遠(yuǎn)!

*根據(jù)柳工股份曾光安總裁在2004鏟土運(yùn)輸機(jī)械行業(yè)年會(huì)上的講話整理

1 Trend of Economic Growth in China

2 Positive Effects of Macro-control Mea-sures on Sustainable Development of the Industry

3 Growth Trend of Earth Moving Machin-ery Industry

With the soaring growth in the past decade, China’s market for earth moving machinery industry, including loaders, graders and bulldozers etc., has become the leader in the world’s four biggest markets. Demand for loaders has grown from ten thousand units ten years ago to almost one billion units in the same pace with the growth of excavator market, the fastest growing subsidiary sector in construction machinery industry. As outperforming private enterprises surged in the market, foreign capital joint ventures also rolled out their penetration into China market. Meanwhile, domestic components suppliers transferred to privatized and internationalized enterprises and consumer groups changed to private and individual customers.

Under the fierce competition, prices of products continued falling instead of rising. For instance, prices of loaders fell above 30% compared with the previous years without any remarkable improvement made on technology and quality. Problems on earth moving machinery industry are gradually rising to be resolved.

(1) High inventory, large amount of accounts recei-vables, cash flow shortage, and extremely high output.

(2) High cost and low profit in comparison.

(3) Low quality and sluggish new technology deve-lopment.

(4) Massive low-level repetitive output hard to consume.

Based on the forecast, earth moving machinery industry will follow the trend of growth below.

(1) Demands in the near future will remain high.

(2) In line with the intensive market competition, price cuts and installment payment will be the short-term orientation strategies to increase market share while product upgrading and value added service will be the long-term strategies.

(3) Merging, restructuring, bank-ruptcy and withdrawing will be seen among manufacturers. The coming era of mergence will bring more reasonable development for China’s construction machinery industry.

(4) Customers’ requirements to quality, reliability, technology, service and spare parts supply will be rising. Better price negotiation tricks from customers will be seen and changes will somewhat take in consumer groups.

(5) Demands for new product and new categories of products ??will grow and changes will be seen in regional demands.

(6) Appearance of new business models including rental sales, second-hand vehicle business will be seen and financing channels for customers and dealers will be improved. Operation of dealers will be more regulated but will be more differentiated in the near future.

(7) Growth speed and foreign owned companies may largely differentiate.

4 Strategies and App-roaches of Guangxi Liu-gong Machinery Co., Ltd.

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